At the beginning of 2012, experts said that the continuous game between real estate developers and policies will be seen in July and August this year. On the one hand, the real estate industry is moving between decline and recovery, on the other hand, the central government is determined to release macro-control. How the real estate industry is going to become more and more confusing, to a certain extent, greatly affects the layout of the future development of upstream and downstream. Then came news that some real estate developers would cut prices and increase volume to release pressure.
Faced with the uncertainty of the upstream real estate industry in the second half of the year, the overall home furnishing industry also experienced a significant decline in the first half of this year. It's just that the continued downturn in the home furnishing industry is a regulatory behavior produced by the industry's own development, and it will still become a victim of the real estate industry's "linkage". This is a proposition that current home furnishing industry decision makers need to consider carefully.
The real estate market is about to heat up?
At present, the global economy is still generally in a low period. Whether the Chinese economy can successfully soft landing is still affecting the attention and eyes of the world. The growth of China's economy will still be expected to be the highlight of the global economy in 2012. Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speech on July 14 that "At present, my country's economic growth rate is still within the expected target range determined at the beginning of the year, and the policy measures for stabilizing growth are seeing results, and the overall economic operation is showing a trend of slowing and stabilizing." Premier Wen's speech Two core viewpoints are highlighted in this article. The economic fundamentals are good, and the government will work hard to do a good job.
In the first half of 2012, domestic GDP grew by 7.8%. Some experts said that on the one hand, the central government continued to suppress high housing prices at the policy level, and on the other hand, it would inevitably also consider the impact of the real estate industry on upstream and downstream industries. Before the two sessions next year, whether in terms of economic growth or general elections, maintaining growth and promoting development will be the main theme. Under the country's macro-control in the second half of the year, it is an inevitable choice to actively rescue the market, and if the home furnishing industry seizes the opportunity, it will usher in a new round of development opportunities.
In fact, the current situation facing the home furnishing industry is not as cold as reported by some media. From the perspective of the overall scale of the home furnishing industry, there has not been a large-scale industry recession trend, and even the scale of leading companies in the industry is still expanding. Taking the industry's largest home furnishing chain company Red Star Macalline as an example, after having more than one hundred physical stores, the national sales reached approximately 2.1 billion in three days during the May 1st holiday, an increase of 30% year-on-year. The passenger flow was nearly 1 million, an increase of more than 40% compared to the same period last year.
In addition, according to statistics from the data monitoring center of Soufang.com, the sales of the real estate market in the first half of the year were significantly better than the relevant data during the macro-control period last year. Taking Beijing as an example, the cumulative total transaction volume of commercial real estate was 598,678.06 square meters, an increase of approximately 60% year-on-year. Due to the lagging effect of the real estate industry on downstream industries, the indifference of the home furnishing industry in the first half of this year can be completely understood as the related effect of the downturn in the real estate industry last year. So once the real estate industry starts to heat up in an all-round way, then the recovery of the home furnishing industry will also be imperative.
Home furnishing industry possesses self-hematopoietic ability
The home furnishing industry is a downstream industry of the real estate market, and real estate turmoil will have a certain impact on the home furnishing industry, and the two are in a direct proportional relationship to some extent. But judging from the market situation in the past two years, this “proportion” seems to be quietly changing. Take the second half of 2011 as an example, the policy suppressed the real estate market, strictly limiting the number and popularity of buying houses. On the other hand, the home furnishing market did not seem to be affected much.
Many heads of home building materials have said that although the introduction of the policy has had an impact on the property market and the transaction volume has declined, it is the speculators and high-end people who are suppressed, and the impact on real rigid needs is not obvious. Under the pressure of policy regulation that lasted for more than a year, for a large number of consumers with rigid demand, it is urgent to find a suitable time to release the pressure. The release of this part of rigid demand pressure will have a very positive impact on the development layout of the home furnishing industry this year and next.
Industry insiders pointed out that in addition to the real estate industry since the current home furnishing industry, affordable housing and secondary decoration are relatively stable growth points for the home furnishing industry. At present, the construction of affordable housing has become the most important part of improving people's livelihood. This growing market has undoubtedly become a new target and a market for home furnishing tycoons. For example, Tianjin will increase the construction of affordable housing this year, add another 40,000 units to the original annual construction plan, and vigorously develop public rental housing. In 2011, 230,000 sets of affordable housing were constructed such as public rental housing, targeted resettlement affordable housing, and price-limited commercial housing.
At present, due to the regulation of the decline in the transaction volume of commercial housing, the focus is on the construction of affordable housing. Now that the focus has been placed on the protection of people's livelihood, the volume of the home improvement market as a rigid demand will be a very large cake. For the home improvement market, there may be a short-term downturn, but there will definitely be a huge outbreak in the future. The home furnishing market has not lost a ray of sunshine due to the regulation of the property market, on the contrary, another ray of sunshine has become stronger and stronger. It is not too long for the home furnishers to melt the ice.
In addition, there is also good news. The Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce announced at the beginning of the year that Beijing’s furniture "trade-in" policy is expected to be officially introduced within this year. Furniture trade-in will continue the policy of home appliances, and combine several large-scale furniture retail stores to combine several types of commonly used furniture. As a trade-in category, subsidies are provided as a percentage of the turnover of new products, and an upper limit is set. Before the introduction of the old-for-new policy, Red Star Macalline, Juran's Home, and Jimei Home Furnishings had spontaneously explored the old-for-new model, and implemented the furniture "old-for-new" business.
Obviously, the current home furnishing industry has developed into an increasingly mature industrial chain in the national economy. Although it cannot be said to be a pillar industry, it has undoubtedly already possessed certain industry self-regulation and self-healing capabilities.
Home furnishing industry ushered in the era of "shuffle"?
Contrary to the huge market size, China's home furnishing industry is objectively a "small industry". Compared with Suning and Gome in the home appliance industry, which account for nearly 20% of the entire industry, the overall concentration of the home circulation industry is low. Take the industry's largest home furnishing chain company Red Star Macalline as an example, which currently accounts for less than 10% of the market.
As demand in the real estate market shrinks, fierce competition in the home furnishing industry will increase the industry concentration again, and the market order will be further regulated. After industry self-regulation, a new round of survival of the fittest, industry segmentation, and resource clustering will inevitably appear in the future. In particular, the continuous expansion of large-scale enterprises represented by leading enterprises in the industry will bring about a series of chain effects: one is to drive the rapid development of furniture, building materials, accessories and other related industries, forming a cluster effect; the other is to greatly improve In order to improve the consumption environment of the circulation market, the "commodity market" has problems such as uneven services, low credibility, and poor shopping environment. The third is to adopt strict access and inspection measures to provide a platform for trading with confidence.
It is foreseeable that, in the face of the pressure of the upstream real estate industry, the huge cake opportunity of the national security housing, the polarization of the home furnishing industry will be inevitable. Industry insiders predict that the construction of affordable housing will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the home building materials industry. The requirements of security housing for products are more standardized, standardized, and modular, and more suitable for mass production, which will give birth to a number of large modern home building materials companies. Companies involved in the affordable housing market must have the ability to resist risks and at the same time have the ability to adapt to market changes. Small workshops of poor quality and small scale will be eliminated by the market if they cannot be transformed and upgraded.
Under the fiercely competitive market situation in the home furnishing industry, major merchants are constantly seeking countermeasures. In addition to improving their own brand services and quality, merchants have begun to break the traditional marketing model, continue to integrate channel resources, and develop together through multiple channels. At present, there are many Home furnishing companies are launching "e-commerce", integrating online and offline channels, and achieving diversified development. In the face of the current crisis situation in the home furnishing industry, it can be said that there are "opportunities" in the "crisis". Those companies that adjust their industrial chain according to market demand and characteristics, launch corresponding products, and have cost-effective quality and good service quality. It can take the opportunity to attract consumers, seize market share, increase visibility, expand scale, and achieve healthy development.
